Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $989,457$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,014,125.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 150.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,014,125.7\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $36,858$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,910.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 129.5)}}\) (asimptote \(35,910.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $28,479$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,524,372$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,676,549.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 204.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,676,549.1\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,534$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{44,790.0}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 200.4)}}\) (asimptote \(44,790.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $130,282$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,110,434$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,605,475.4}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 156.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,605,475.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $184,827$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,617.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 130.7)}}\) (asimptote \(175,617.0\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $624,060$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $578,732$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{524,493.5}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 122.1)}}\) (asimptote \(524,493.5\))
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $16,007$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,659.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 119.6)}}\) (asimptote \(14,659.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,525$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $204,249$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{233,077.0}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 176.2)}}\) (asimptote \(233,077.0\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,932$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,609.7}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 161.9)}}\) (asimptote \(15,609.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,366$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,468,795$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,482,128.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 188.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,482,128.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $39,787$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{38,150.0}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 162.1)}}\) (asimptote \(38,150.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $85,189$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $148,665$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{144,608.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 133.2)}}\) (asimptote \(144,608.2\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,031$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,172.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 143.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,172.3\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,479$ on 2020-12-17
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $97,028$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,665.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 213.0)}}\) (asimptote \(100,665.5\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,032$ on 2020-12-17
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,975.8}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 202.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,975.8\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $25,645$ on 2020-12-17
